Ten percent of the population of the Slovak Republic can by 110 days (from 15 March) to infect COVID-19 (coronavirus) if maintained strict measures introduced by 16 March. Analysis The Institute of Health policy (IZP) at the Ministry of Health of the Slovak Republic based on mathematical model, which at the same time confirmed the correctness of the measures set.
Without measures taken under this model, Slovakia infected with coronavirus as early as day 26 as 40 percent of the population. The measures that have been introduced since this week have led us to believe that has significantly helped to suspend or increase the spread moved over time and was more controlled, stated Director IZP Martin Smatana. The prevalence of the disease will be at the top of this Day 110.
According to analysts, while maintaining the current measures, it would be 100. over 3,000 patients have needed intensive care on the day since 15 March.We are confident that without restrictions our system will be able to handle 550 ventilated patients, indicates the study.
The peak capacity of medical equipment should occur according to
the model in 60 days. "Minimum next two months, we should have
at least from a technological point of view, everything we need."Supposedly Smatana. This applies only if they do not appear accidentally
outbreaks.
All model-based predictions assume that current measures will be
continue. The analysis is based on a simulation of new coronavirus transmission after
Slovakia based on migration flows between Slovak municipalities according to the model on
based on an article in Nature magazine.
IZP still expects data from mobile operators with which to measuring population mobility more efficiently. The model also provides for rational population behaviour and compliance with mandatory quarantine.